Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Analysis: Celestia's Competence Part 2

OR: Celestia's Long Game

Spoilers for seasons 4 and 5.

This post contains large amounts of speculation.

Canon junkies and Celestia haters beware.



 Previously, I looked at whether or not Celestia is capable of defending Equestria, and I concluded that she is not. She has beaten exactly zero threats to the kingdom on her own.

 I also toyed with the idea that Celestia may not be nearly as powerful as we've been led to believe.

Here's a question:

 How many real world leaders would appear on the front lines? How can we expect Celestia to be able to personally respond to every attack, and still have time to rule her kingdom?


 But, let's ignore that and assume Celestia is simply not strong enough to defend Equestria by herself.

 Let's also assume that she knows that.


 She can't be unaware of that fact, not if Equestria has always been as dangerous as it currently is. Dragons, hydras, ursas have all been seen in or near Ponyville, and that's without even going into the Everfree. Not to mention the fact that in A Canterlot Wedding, Princess Cadence knew exactly what Queen Chrysalis was, implying that changelings are not unknown in Equestria.

 Clearly there must be some system or force in place to defend the kingdom.

 Yes, I know that the Guard and the Wonderbolts are supposedly the defenders of Equestria, but given how little they've accomplished against the villains in the show, I must assume Celestia has some other way of defending Equestria. 


 Here's my theory: Knowing that she can't be everywhere at once, Celestia has trained and manipulated others to defend the various places in Equestria without her direct intervention. And knowing that there will be enemies too powerful for her to directly attack, she trains unicorns like Twilight to be able to use their power in addition to her own. She may have set up Princess Celestia's School for Gifted Unicorns for this purpose.

 In this theory, Twilight, as both Celestia's protege and a resident of Ponyville, would serve the defender in the local area, and be the one Celestia would send to deal with problems beyond the capabilities of the other defenders, like when she was sent to the Crystal Empire to aid Princess Cadence and Shining Armor.


 But who besides twilight, could fall into this role?


  • The Mane Six, obviously. Though they may have originally been intended only to be bearers of the Elements of Harmony, they have come to occupy their own places in Celestia's plans. Fluttershy in Keep Calm and Flutter On is a good example of this.
  • Luna and Cadence. We don't know exactly how much power each of them wields, but it appears rather significant.
  • Shining Armor. He's both Twilight's brother and Captain of the Guard. Doesn't seem like a coincidence. Maybe high magic power is a family trait?
  • Sunset Shimmer. She's referred to as being a former student of Celestia. Was she another candidate to wield the Element of Magic? Plus, after Equestria Girls, Sunset was apparently writing to Celestia from the human world, and specifically called for help when she realized that the Dazzlings were using magic.

 And that's just the ones we know about! Who knows how many other ponies are serving a similar role in places like Las Pegasus or Fillydelphia.

 It's also possible that Celestia has been doing this for centuries, though she may have increased her efforts in the past few decades, knowing that her sister's return was close.


 There are issues with this theory, but it would explain most of the situations we've seen in the series.

 Behold list number two:
  • Friendship is Magic: Knowing she could not use the Elements herself, Celestia sent her best student and a hand picked group of ponies to reclaim them. She may have intended for Nightmare Moon to be banished for another thousand years, not daring to hope that her sister might be redeemed.
  • Dragonshy: She tests her new team by sending them to face a dragon, knowing that she can still step in if they fail.
  • Swarm of the Century: Seeing that the parasprites were dealt with, Celestia played dumb, knowing that Twilight would probably freak out if she were to make a big deal of it.
  • Sonic Rainboom and A Bird in the Hoof: Celestia realized that Twilight's friends could be useful in their own right, and started making plans to train them all, while still focusing on Twilight.
  • The Return of Harmony: With Discord free again, Celestia immediately brought the mane six to Canterlot to use the Elements of Harmony, though she was already too late. Knowing that Discord would try to turn the Mane Six against each other, Celestia sent back all of the letters Twilight had written to give them the means and motivation to fight Discord's influence.
  • Lesson Zero: Celestia came to Ponyville to calm Twilight down, but when she saw an opportunity to have greater contact with the rest of the Mane Six, she took it(see Sonic Rainboom and A Bird in the Hoof above.)
  • Luna Eclipsed: Celestia may have encouraged Luna to make the trip to Ponyville, knowing that the Mane Six would be among the few ponies that would not be afraid of her. Celestia may also have intended for Luna to bond with the Mane Six, so that they would trust her to command them in the event that Celestia was incapacitated.
  • Sweet and Elite: Celestia let Rarity stay at the palace so that she could observe Rarity, and decide how to further train her.
  • Hearth's Warming Eve: I'll be honest, I don't know where this fits in this theory. Maybe Twilight is right when she says "[Princess Celestia] must really think that we exemplify what good friends are!" Maybe there was no other motive than putting on a good play.
  • It's About Time: No matter how you spin it, this one was a legitimate failure on Celestia's part. Cerberus's absence from the entrance to Tartarus allowed Tirek to escape. Kinda deserved a bigger response than a lost dog poster.
  • A Canterlot Wedding: Realizing the threat to Canterlot, Celestia went for a more obvious show of force with added guards and the forcefield. It failed miserably. The infiltration and subsequent attack, along with being overpowered by Chrysalis, showed Celestia that she had been right all along. At this point she returned to more subtle means of defense.
  • The Crystal Empire: After the Crystal Empire reappeared, Celestia knew that Sombra couldn't be far behind. She immediately sent Cadence and Shining Armor to the Empire, and summoned the Mane Six to Canterlot, but told Luna not to go to the Empire, saying, "She will succeed at her task. And when she does, we'll know that she is that much closer to being ready. Trust me, little sister." It seem like Celestia was already planning to make Twilight an alicorn. Her choice of words in Twilight's briefing does give me pause, suggesting that Celestia was trying to convince herself that she was making the right decision on how to spread her forces.
  • Magic Duel: Not directly related to Celestia, but it shows that her plan is working to some extent. Twilight knows that she can't get in contact with Celestia, so she works things out on her own. It's at this point that Twilight stops being merely an agent of Celestia, and becomes Ponyville's defender in her own right.
  • Sleepless in Ponyville: Luna's role is expanded to include dreams. While it's probable she was already active in this role, this is the first time in the series that we see it. With Luna both easing nightmares, and able to spot patterns that would indicate a larger problems, Celestia can obtain information directly from the minds of her subjects. Kinda creepy.
  • Keep Calm and Flutter On: This was Celestia's first use of one of Twilight's friends in a specific role, not counting the Element of Harmony. She did bet a lot on Fluttershy's ability to reform Discord, but She must have thought that the possibility of having an ally as powerful as Discord was worth the risk. It did end up paying off in Twilight's Kingdom.
  • Magical Mystery Cure: The big one. Twilight solves one last problem, and makes the jump to being an alicorn. Celestia also expands Twilight's role to being a princess of Equestria.
  • Equestria Girls: Celestia sent Twilight into a strange world, knowing that she might not be able to return for a long time. She risked her greatest asset and somepony she cared for, not just for the sake of retrieving a powerful weapon, but also to defend another world.
  • For Whom the Sweetie Belle Tolls: Luna is once again helping dispel nightmares. At one point, Luna shows Sweetie Belle what may happen if Rarity does not impress Sapphire Shores. Is Luna just pulling from Rarity's nightmares, or can she see possible futures?
  • Twilight's Kingdom: It seem like Celestia had not planned for Tirek's escape, but how could an inherently magical creature plan to defeat a creature that absorbs magic? It's not stated how he was defeated the first time. Perhaps sending Discord really was the best plan she could come up with. In the end though, Celestia's long term planning payed off. Having Fluttershy turn Discord was the indirect cause of Tirek's defeat.
  • Rainbow Rocks: Among the books Celestia sent Twilight was the one that contained Sunset Shimmer's letters. Celestia may have wanted Twilight to see the progress that Sunset had made in her absence, or wanted Twilight to be one to monitor the human world.
  • The Cutie Map: Twilight almost certainly told Celestia about the Cutie Map. With the Box opened, Twilight's new castle, and everything else that happened in Twilight's Kingdom, Celestia seem to have realized that Twilight no longer needed her direct guidance, which explains her relative absence so far in season 5.
  • Bloom and Gloom: Luna helps Apple Bloom to get over her fears. I have to wonder if Luna, and by extension Celestia, hasn't taken an interest in the CMC. Maybe they're being trained to be future defenders of Equestria?

 Even with all this, it's still possible that Celestia has simply gotten lucky, with Twilight being the reason that the Nation is still intact. But even then, I'd have to give Celestia some credit for seeing and using Twilight's potential as a leader, rather than just her raw magical power.

 I really hope that the rest of season 5 will give more evidence to support this theory.

 What do you think? Am I on the right track, or am I giving Celestia too much credit?



 Sorry that this one is so long, but it kinda got away from me.


 God bless.

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